How It Works
1. Analysis
Every pick starts with a breakdown of team and player data, injuries, rest, matchup history, and current betting market movement (opening line vs. current line).
2. Risk Sizing — The Unit System
1 Unit = 1% of bankroll. Every pick is sized in units, not dollars, so the system scales to any bankroll.
Common sizes: 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 units, based on our confidence in the analytical case — not a guarantee of the outcome.
Unit sizing is a bankroll-management guideline, not a guarantee of results. Never wager more than you can afford to lose, and never increase bet size to chase losses.
3. Publishing
Every pick gets a unique Pick ID at the moment it's published, along with the odds, our reasoning, and a timestamp. It appears on our Picks page immediately.
4. Settlement
After the event, we record the result — win, loss, or push — and it becomes part of our permanent, public Results page.
5. Corrections (rare, and logged)
If we ever need to correct a data error on a settled pick (e.g. a scorekeeping fix), it's done through a logged correction with a stated reason — never a silent edit. Corrected picks are marked with a ✎ symbol on our results page.
What "Confidence" Means
When we describe a pick as higher or lower confidence, we mean the strength of the analytical case behind it — not a promise of the result. Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain, and no analysis can guarantee a win.